Election polls are a waste of time. Especially presidential election polls that reflect a national popular vote, when state-by-state elections are what really matter.
Polls that ask who “won” a presidential question and answer show, which is what we have identified in recent decades as “debates” for a dumbed down population, also are pointless. The only real winners are those people who choose not to watch.
I do, however, follow the Trafalgar Group polls—and only the Trafalgar Group polls—because, to the best of my recollection, Trafalgar was the only national polling organization that accurately predicted Donald Trump’s win in 2016. Also, as I recall, Trafalgar—minus the steal—was pretty accurate in 2020 as well compared to the other 800 polls.
Following last night’s presidential campaign Q&A circus, Trafalgar produced an interesting poll of swing state voters—voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The poll concluded that Harris won the “debate” by a significant margin, but Trump gained voters by the end of the event.
Before the “debate,” 47.4 percent of the poll respondents planned to vote for Trump, compared to 46.8 percent for the Kackler—a margin of 0.6 percent, with 4.1 percent undecided and 1.7 planning to vote for “other.”
Asked who “won” the debate, 55.3 percent said the Kackler won, with only 42.5 percent opining that Trump won—a nearly 13 point difference—and 2.2 percent called it a tie.
Yet, after the “debate,” 48.2 percent (up from 47.4 percent—a gain of 0.8 percent) said they planned to vote for Trump, while Harris drew 47.9 percent (up from 46.8 percent—a gain of 1.1 percent). “Other” decreased by 0.7 percent and “undecided” lost 1.2 percent from before the show.
Trafalgar said 2,245 likely voters responded to the poll (a response rate of 3 percent), which has a 2.1 percent margin of error.
Trafalgar last conducted presidential polls in the individual swing states in August, before lifelong democrat and independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. pulled out of the race and endorsed Trump. Trump held slight leads in each of those states in those polls.
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